It’s not every day that an analyst from a well-respected and highly influential firm declares the death of not one but two well-respected and highly influential technologies. But that happened recently in Paris, and the rumors of downfall for the two tech darlings are beginning to be felt in the online world. The two doomed innovations: The social networking behemoth, Facebook, and the tech construct known as The Cloud.

Who’s delivering this early eulogy? That would be Forrester CEO George Colony, who spoke to an assembled group in Paris recently and ended his remarks by pronouncing that Facebook is “toast” and Cloud technology isn’t positioned to take advantage of the real transformative movement in tech: Mobility.

And it’s mobility that Colony believes will change the way everyone does everything when it comes to tech.

Mobile engagement, built on architectural change brought about by the app, will replace the broader web as the focus of innovation and change, Colony explained to the crowd gathered in the French capital for Forrester’s analyst forum this month.

Colony maintains that the old PC model is antiquated and that Cloud computing’s fatal flaw is that it  ”doesn’t leverage power in your pocket.” Future architecture will marry powerful data capabilities, held in the Cloud, with powerful apps on personal devices, he predicts.

He also forecasts that it will be Apple and Google who dominate the future of computing (likely because of their agile development of mobile devices). Microsoft’s late to the game and its success likely hinges on how Windows 8 fares with users and business alike.

For now, the flop that Facebook is facing over its much ballyhooed IPO give some credence to Colony’s claims. While many may be scratching their heads in wonder that the little social network that could is something of a laughing stock to many who took a pass on investing in it, there’s a fundamental lesson here that most finance folks probably recognize.

Having millions — or nearly a billion — fans or users is a remarkable thing, but unless you’ve got something they want that you can charge them folding money for, you will not have a business success.

The essential appeal of Facebook is that it connects humans to each other. And it does that for free. Facebook has never fully understood the secret of its own success and therefore has never been able to successfully exploit it.

The success of an online business depends on this simple principle and plenty of technology fans get distracted from the basics when confronted with mind-numbing tech details.

But investors and company folks who leverage tech everyday to create business success need to keep it top of mind.

When the tech bubble of the 90s burst, lessons on this simple principle were learned and it seems, quickly forgotten. Remedial studies may be required.

Tags: cloud computing, Facebook, Forrester, George Colony